Boxing betting tips: Anthony Joshua v Oleksandr Usyk predictions and best bets
Chris Oliver finds it difficult to call a winner between Anthony Joshua and Oleksandr Usyk and expects pay-per-view customers to get bang for their buck on Saturday.
Boxing betting tips: Joshua v Usyk
3pts Joshua-Usyk to go over 10.5 rounds at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Joshua-Usyk to draw at 20/1 (General)
1pt Lawrence Okolie to win in rounds 3-4 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Florian Marku to win by decision at 9/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
ANTHONY JOSHUA returns to a packed-out UK stadium on Saturday and while it may not be against the man we all wanted it to be, a special night is in store all the same.
Three years have passed since his last stadium appearance against Alexander Povetkin at Wembley, and despite Tyson Fury not being in the opposite corner here, this showdown with former cruiserweight king OLEKSANDR USYK is a fascinating one in its own right.
Just under 70,000 fans will fill Tottenham Hotspur's glistening new ground in what should be a real celebration of post-pandemic sport on these shores, with British boxing's golden boy the star of the show. The stage is set for Joshua to shine once again and spark euphoria in the stands by retaining his three heavyweight belts. After all, a good big 'un beats a good little 'un, right?
Well, it's far from that simple here, not least because Uysk is no ordinary little 'un.
As I mentioned in my talking points piece earlier in the week, the Ukrainian brings a dazzling set of skills and a stunning CV to the party, albeit it at a lower weight. The achievement of unifying all the belts in the 200lb division by his 15th professional fight is impressive enough on its own, but even more so when you consider he did it on the road and largely in the backyards of his opponents. Add to that the manner in which he cleaned up - never looking like getting beaten and doing so in a style that defies his size - and you can see why he is so revered in boxing circles. That's the reason why, despite Joshua (2/5) holding all the advantages in size, power and territory, the visitor is 'only' a top price of 9/4 to pull off yet another away victory.
Both men won gold at London 2012, Joshua at super heavyweight and Usyk at heavyweight, which alludes to a size difference that has been the main focus in the build-up among pundits and fans, but that is only one of the reasons why this is such a fascinating contest. Both men bring something to the table that neither has seen before, and that throws up an intriguing set of scenarios from a tactical point of view.
Joshua's advantage is certainly more obvious to the casual observer, with his muscle-bound frame towering over Usyk by three inches and he enjoys a longer reach to the tune of four inches. The underdog hasn't previously fought such a physical specimen - one who his renowned for his world-class power and knocking out top-class heavyweights, never mind former cruiserweights. The problem for Usyk is how he overcomes the physical mountain in front of him.
Usyk's advantages are more subtle but plentiful. First of all, he is a southpaw and Joshua has only come up against one of those before as a professional. That was on the night he won his first world title when barely breaking a sweat in getting rid of Charles Martin inside two rounds, but that was no preparation for this 'lefty', and the skilful Usyk presents a very different test indeed. Usyk's success has been built around his superb footwork, as he glides in an out of range with such ease that he could be mistaken for a middleweight. His nimble feet allow him to constantly change the angles of attack and defence, and he does so with such effortlessness that he uses up very little energy. One thing even quicker than his hands and feet is his superb boxing brain, and he is seemingly always one step ahead of his opponent, both physically and mentally.
To muddy the tactical waters further, Joshua has been in a transitional period of late and is a much more rounded fighter than earlier in his career. Having been all about brute force and physicality as he bludgeoned his way to the top, his up-and-down thriller with Wladimir Klitschko signalled the start of a more cautious 'AJ'. That caution increased after he was stopped by Andy Ruiz in a huge upset, as the Brit regained his belts with a fine display of stick-and-move tactics behind his jab in the rematch. He was caught between the two styles somewhat against Kubrat Pulev in December, when stopping the game Bulgarian in the ninth round, and it leaves the question of which Joshua we will see this weekend.
Has slimmed-down AJ compromised his chance?
While the champion has clearly improved technically and is a better all-round fighter now, I actually feel the 'old' Joshua would have a greater chance here. I would fancy the seek-and-destroy version of the Watford man to walk down Usyk and catch him with something meaningful in the first half of the fight. As we saw in Usyk's last outing against Dereck Chisora, the Ukrainian looked very uncomfortable at times with the bull-like aggression and crude style of the Finchley veteran. Usyk won comfortably enough on the cards in the end but had to work very hard to keep out of the way of bulky frame charging in his direction.
However, all the images we have seen in the build-up suggest we are going to see a slimmed-down Joshua when they step on the scales and that leads me to believe the home favourite will be looking to box more than brawl. Given his height and reach advantages, looking to box and keeping it long would normally seem sound tactics, but possibly not on this occasion. That would only play into the hands of Usyk, who is far more well versed in the art of the sweet science and 'Top Trumps' any other heavyweight in the skill department by some way.
The thinking behind a leaner Joshua is likely to be the clear need for a greater gas tank here. Those bulging muscles are not built for stamina and his lack of ability to do 12 rounds at a good pace has been exposed by mid-fight slumps against the likes of Klitschko, Carlos Takam, Ruiz and Pulev. These usually come approaching the halfway mark, which happens to be around the time Uysk likes to step it up a gear. Usyk's eighth-round stoppage of Tony Bellew across town at the O2 Arena in 2018 was a fine example of this, and he threw nearly 900 punches in his frenetic points win over Mairis Breidis earlier that year. Admittedly they were at cruiserweight, but he looked as fresh in the last minute as he was in the first against Chisora last time and clearly does 12 rounds very well at heavyweight as well.
We kind of know what to expect from Usyk, who will look to control the distance with his feet, make his man miss and pay, before pivoting out of range and starting again. On the other hand, Joshua's tactics aren't so obvious, but I anticipate him getting on the front foot, in a controlled and cautious manner, behind his jab. If he begins to find a home for his jab, he will likely start to do so with the big right hand that follows soon after, but winning the jab exchange is far from guaranteed, despite the champion's longer limbs. Orthodox versus southpaw contests are so often decided by who can establish their jab and I envisage the left-handed stance of Usyk being a real problem for Joshua, whose limited experience against 'portsiders' could be evident.
Of course, this is heavyweight boxing, and all this talk of tactics could be irrelevant if Usyk's chin can't hold up to being cracked harder than ever before. The ferocious fists of Joshua have despatched bigger men than Usyk and, at some point, the challenger is going to feel that power. That being said, Usyk is not easy to hit cleanly with his defensive skills and he has shown good whiskers on the occasions he has been clocked by heavy hitters in the past, albeit it by cruiserweights.
Too close to call
In case you haven't guessed already, I am struggling to pick a clear winner here. I am in no doubt Usyk is the best boxer Joshua has faced and the smaller man is capable of making his superior skills tell with a boxing clinic. At the same time, there are divisions in boxing for a reason and Joshua has the size and power to discourage anyone, not least this smaller foe.
I think Joshua will look to grab the centre of the ring from the off and push the smaller man back with his jab, but don't be surprised to see frustration creep in if he struggles to land that lead left hand against the southpaw. If Usyk can get a hold in the fight early doors and make Joshua work more than he wants to, then the champion may struggle to keep up when the underdog goes through the gears from the middle rounds.
Usyk by decision is certainly tempting at 4/1, although the cynic in me worries that he may have to win very clearly in order to nick a decision over Joshua in the UK. With that in mind, those who want a patriotic punt can get much better value from the 11/4 for Joshua on points than the 6/5 about him getting the stoppage. Either way, I see this going deep and fancy it to go the distance, which is a top price of 27/20 with Betfred. However, the safer option may be the very generous 11/10 for it to go over 10.5 rounds with Paddy Power, as you have a stoppage in the last four and a half minutes on your side for very little cost in terms of the price.
Given the case I have made for this being a close one to call, I will be having a small saver on the draw at 20/1 and, if this is as good as I expect it to be, I certainly wouldn't be against that outcome meaning they have to do it all again to find a winner.
Onwards and upwards for improving Okolie
There is more world title action on the bill as LAWRENCE OKOLIE makes the first defence of his WBO cruiserweight strap against Dilan Prasovic.
Okolie was brilliant in winning the belt against former champion Krzysztof Glowacki in March, boxing well behind his excellent jab before ending the fight with a beautiful right-hand in the sixth session. That was only his 16 outing as a professional and highlighted the progress he has made since being coached by Shane McGuigan.
Prasovic is also unbeaten (in 15) but has faced nowhere near the same sort of opposition as Okolie, who has stopped his last six opponents and should make it seven against this overmatched mandatory challenger. The 14/1 underdog likes to come forward and often does so with his hands down, which spells trouble against a power puncher like Okolie, and the visitor can walk on to a big one soon enough, possibly in ROUNDS 3-4.
An interesting contest that has the potential to be fight of the night is Maxim Prodan versus FLORIAN MARKU.
Both are unbeaten, with one draw apiece, and there has been plenty of bad blood during fight week. However, Marku, who is a very warm 1/9 favourite, knows that obliging the heavy-handed Prodan in a tear-up would level the playing field considerably and it would be no surprise to see him not deliver on his promise of going toe-to-toe.
He did the same thing against Ryan Charlton last time, and we have seen the outsider struggle with movers in the past, so the value here may be MARKU BY DECISION at 9/5 in this 10-rounder.
Posted at 1030 BST on 24/09/21
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