Tennis Indian Wells betting tips: Preview and best bets for BNP Paribas Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Taylor Fritz in the BNP Paribas Open at 50/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Alex de Minaur in the BNP Paribas Open at 35/1 (BetVictor)

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BNP Paribas Open

• Indian Wells, USA (outdoor hard)

The fifth major.

I suspect it’s a term you’ve heard before and if you haven’t, there’s a good case you’ll be hearing it from the Saudis in the near future.

But, for now, Indian Wells is almost unquestionably the biggest tournament outside the four Grand Slams.

Larry Ellison, the man behind software company Oracle, has helped transform the venue into the best in tennis with its facilities second to none.

The players largely love it – with one notable exception: the Plexipave courts.

They’ve baffled many a star down the years, perhaps most notably Andy Murray who has never won this tournament and has admitted he struggles getting to grips with what is a unique challenge.

The court surface itself is slow and the Penn balls used bounce high off it. There look sure to be grumbles from some quarters about the pace, or lack of it, again this year.

However, those attributes combine with the dry desert air which allows the balls to fizz through that bit faster.

Big servers have often done well here, particularly those who don’t like to be rushed, as can be the case when the ball comes through quick and low in the rallies.

These were pretty much ideal conditions for John Isner – a man I backed here on more than one occasion – while Milos Raonic is another with a strong record in Indian Wells.

The man who fits that template this year is TAYLOR FRITZ, the champion here in 2022.

It’s a run I remember painfully – that season I backed the other three semi-finalists only to see them fall to the inspired American, who was struggling with injury on finals day.

Still, two years on, hopefully Fritz can make amends for that slaying job.

He possesses that big serve which should cause plenty of problems for receivers, while he loves to line up the big forehand in the serve +1 shot. If the combination fires, as it did in 2022, Fritz can go deep again.

He was a quarter-finalist last year and a semi-finalist in 2021, so the victory was certainly no flash in the pan.

The 26-year-old has five top-10 wins at Indian Wells which, as you’ll see as you read on, isn’t a record many in this field can match.

Form is decent enough, with a hardcourt title secured in Delray Beach after a run to the last eight of the Australian Open.

The draw has also been fairly kind.

CLICK HERE to back Fritz with Sky Bet

Fritz is in the second quarter, with Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune the men seeded higher than him in that section.

Medvedev did make the final 12 months ago but that was during a golden spell in which he’d won three successive tournaments.

This year he has made the Australian Open final but the way in which he did so, playing several long matches, forced a change in schedule and he arrives here off the back of a defeat to Ugo Humbert in Dubai.

Medvedev has never beaten a top-10 player here – he’d prefer it much faster – and can be taken on.

So can Rune, who has failed to show anything like his best for some time and he’s now back with old coach Patrick Mouratoglou. That could reap rewards long term but, at present, he’s one to avoid.

Rune will actually open against Rafael Nadal or the aforementioned Raonic, two players who seem to be permanently injured these days.

Nadal has barely played in more than a year so it’s hard to see him challenging, despite a good tournament record.

Djokovic hard to assess

The first quarter is led by world number one and tournament favourite Novak Djokovic.

Yet, who really knows what to expect from the Serb?

Of course, he could march to the title but he’s not been seen since what was a pretty miserable performance by his standards in the semi-finals of the Australian Open, where he lost to Jannik Sinner for the third time in four meetings.

Djokovic is a five-time champion here but his last victory came back in 2016 and he’s not been past the last 16 since.

There’s something of an asterisk next to that stat – he’s only appeared three times in that period, due largely to his COVID vaccination status. His last visit was five years ago.

However, I feel there’s enough doubt around and am not interested in a price no bigger than 2/1.

There other options in this section.

Casper Ruud showed some good signs in Mexico in recent weeks but he’s never been beyond the last 16 here so is hard to back.

Cameron Norrie and Hubert Hurkacz though were both seriously considered.

Both have strong records in Indian Wells, Norrie winning the title in 2021 and Hurkacz making two quarter-finals, with his serve-forehand combination having plenty of potential in these conditions.

However, not only have they landed in the same quarter as the favourite, they also look likely to have to play each other in round three, a match which looks hard to call.

I’ll move on to the bottom half where Sinner resides – he’s the second favourite and there’s a case to be made that 7/2 is the value play.

The Italian is 12-0 so far in 2024 and, having backed up his maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open by winning in Rotterdam, it’s hard to believe confidence could be much higher coming in here.

Add in his tremendous second half of 2023 and Sinner has now won 12 of his last 13 matches against top-10 opponents.

Sinner is 7-2 at this tournament, making the semis last year, while only injury stopped him in 2022.

With that series of wins over Djokovic, he looks the best player in the world right now and maybe should be at the top of the market.

However, backing players at a short price has rarely been for me in Indian Wells where so many of the top guys have often suffered shock losses.

Marcos Giron or Thanasi Kokkinakis will be Sinner’s first opponent before, potentially, he faces Jan-Lennard Struff and Ben Shelton, two players who have that big-hitting game which has been proven to work well here before.

That’s a tricky-looking first few rounds – I’ll survive if Sinner does emerge victorious.

Perhaps Andrey Rublev could take advantage of an early Sinner slip. He was one of my semi-finalists two years ago but he’s yet to beat a top-10 player in Indian Wells and hasn’t been at the top of his game so far this season.

Maybe his recent, controversial default in Dubai will provide added motivation. Long-term readers will know I’ve often been prepared to back the Russian at a chunky price and 40/1 isn’t a bad one.

He delivered for us in Monte Carlo last spring but too often he’s found wanting in the latter stages.

My preference in this half is to back a player who’s really shone so far in 2024 and is arguably playing the best tennis of his career.

ALEX DE MINAUR warmed up for Indian Wells by claiming the title in Acapulco last week and that followed on from a run to the final in Rotterdam where only Sinner proved too good.

The Acapulco conditions aren’t too dissimilar to those found here, although admittedly De Minaur only holds a 5-5 record at this event.

However, theoretically the conditions should work with his game.

He’s not one of those with a huge serve as a big weapon but on slower surfaces, the Australian’s outstanding defensive skills can be brought to the fore – it will be hard to hit winners past him here, especially given how well he’s playing right now.

CLICK HERE to back de Minaur with Sky Bet

Rivals in this section include Alex Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz.

Zverev has just one quarter-final appearance to show from his seven previous visits (and no top-10 wins) so it’s clear Indian Wells isn’t his favourite stop on the tour.

Alcaraz warrants more respect. He’s the defending champion but the fact is he’s not hit the heights expected of him this season.

There was a quarter-final loss to Zverev at the Australian Open followed by a shock defeat on his favoured clay in Buenos Aires.

Then came an ankle injury in Rio which will have disrupted his preparation for this tournament.

Maybe he can flick the switch back on but at just 5/1, I’m not prepared to pay to find out.

Posted at 0720 GMT on 06/03/24

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