Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Miami Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

2pts win Jannik Sinner at 11/4 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Hubert Hurkacz at 50/1 (BoyleSports)

1pt Casper Ruud to win the third quarter at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Miami Open

• Miami, USA (outdoor hard)

Since the ‘Sunshine Double’ of Indian Wells and Miami became a feature of the tour in 1985, only seven men have completed it.

The last man to win both events in the same year was Novak Djokovic in 2016.

That was the actually the fourth time he’d managed to achieve the feat but the Serb flopped badly in Indian Wells and has duly opted out of the Miami Open, which begins in Florida on Wednesday.

Arguably the main reason the double has proved so tough to achieve is that conditions vary wildly between the two venues.

Indian Wells is played on slow Plexipave courts but the balls fly pretty quickly through the dry desert air.

That contrasts with Miami where the air is thicker due to humidity, which causes the balls to fluff up, and the Laykold courts are faster.

If you are a horses-for-courses punter, you need to read into your tournament history, although it’s worth noting that the current venue for this week’s tournament – in and around the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens – is different to the pre-2019 one on Key Biscayne where the wind played a greater role.

Carlos Alcaraz is the latest man to attempt the double.

The Spaniard surprised many with his title run in California where he ended JANNIK SINNER’s unbeaten start to 2024 and then took down Daniil Medvedev in the final.

• CLICK HERE to bet on tennis with Sky Bet

With Djokovic absent, it’s no surprise to see those three at the top of the betting, although I found it interesting that Alcaraz is now considered a more likely winner than Sinner.

Two weeks ago, Sinner was 7/2 for the Indian Wells title and Alcaraz 5/1.

Now it’s 11/4 versus 2/1 and I’m not sure that what unfolded in California last week warrants such a swing.

Yes, Alcaraz emerged as the best player but it was his first success at any tournament since Wimbledon last summer and it my well have taken a lot out of him mentally.

The emotion certainly poured out during Sunday’s celebrations with his coaching team.

While I was personally happy to see Alcaraz prove his critics wrong in Indian Wells, I wouldn’t be surprised if his efforts have taken some sort of toll and, with my professional head on, don’t want to be backing him at 2/1 here, despite the fact he’s a former champion (2022).

Medvedev will interest some at 6/1; after all he is the defending champion.

However, I’ll repeat the point I made about the Russian prior to Indian Wells – this time last year he was in top form, sweeping to four titles in February and March.

He did play well in Indian Wells but he was second best to Alcaraz in the title match, no question.

While it’s faster here, conditions still don’t look ideal for Medvedev and, as already hinted, I’m going to back Sinner to triumph.

The Italian has a point to prove again after his defeat to Alcaraz last week.

And it should be remembered that contest was very much going Sinner’s way when he took the first set 6-1.

Errors crept into his game though, particularly in the final set.

Anyone can have a bad spell like that and it would be foolish to dismiss his chances here because of a bad hour.

Prior to that, Sinner has looked every inch the champion and I very much expect him to launch another strong challenge in Miami.

This is a venue he’s won plenty of matches at in the past – he holds a 13-3 win-loss record at the tournament – and the 22-year-old has frankly been rather unfortunate not to have already landed the title here.

It was in Miami where he made his Masters breakthrough in 2021, reaching the final only to lose to Hubert Hurkacz.

A year later, he returned to the quarter-finals only for injury to strike when he was a hot favourite to see off Francisco Cerundolo, while last year injury was also an issue as he struggled physically during a final loss to Medvedev.

That followed a semi-final victory over Alcaraz – the pair could meet in the final with Sinner v Medvedev a potential last-four clash.

Being on Medvedev’s side of the draw is one of the reasons Sinner’s price is bigger than Alcaraz’s but I still believe 11/4 in a place and 5/2 generally represents value about a player who has been the best on tour for many months now.

Even after his loss to Alcaraz, Sinner has won 12 of his last 14 matches against top-10 opponents, and he rates the man to beat.

In terms of longer shots, the aforementioned HUBERT HURKACZ may be worth some loose change.

• CLICK HERE to bet on tennis with Sky Bet

The Pole is another with a strong record in Miami – he won here in 2021 and made the last four the following season.

He’s in Alcaraz’s quarter but has proved a tough nut to crack for the Spaniard.

OK, Alcaraz does lead the head-to-head 3-0 but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Five of the eight sets they’ve played have gone to tie-breaks, Alcaraz winning them all; that’s surely unsustainable in the long run.

Last season’s two matches both went to a decider, while their 2022 semi-final here was won 7-6 7-6 by Alcaraz.

Hurkacz has had his big serve firing this season and if that shot works as it’s done here in the past, he could make waves at 50/1.

I say ‘if’ for a reason though.

Hurkacz was very poor in defeat to Gael Monfils in Indian Wells – he lost the opening set to love – although reports of illness may well explain that performance.

If he’s recovered fully, the Pole could offer some value, although the doubts mean I’ll keep stakes small.

The other player who may be capable of something here is 2022 runner-up CASPER RUUD.

• CLICK HERE to bet on tennis with Sky Bet

That was the year the Norwegian really moved up to elite level, notably converting his strong claycourt results onto hardcourts.

He dropped off somewhat in 2023 but the signs so far this season have been good.

He reached finals in both Los Cabos and Acapulco before making a run to the last eight in Indian Wells where Tommy Paul edged him out over three sets.

Ruud may need rid of Medvedev before their scheduled quarter-final meeting – he trails 3-0, albeit the last of those matches was in 2021.

That said, Cam Norrie and Ugo Humbert both lie in Medvedev’s path through the draw and after a deep run in Indian Wells, the Russian could be a little jaded.

Ruud to win his quarter at 11/2 is worth a shot.

Posted at 1330 GMT on 19/03/24

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org