Scotland v England tips: Six Nations preview and best bets
Ben White can cross in an otherwise low-scoring renewal of the Calcutta Cup according to Jon Newcombe, who previews Saturday's Six Nations showdown.
Six Nations betting tips: Scotland v England
2pts under 4.5 tries at 21/20 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Ben White anytime try-scorer at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt handicap draw (Scotland -3) at 19/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- Saturday, 1645 GMT
- Live on BBC One
With two home bankers bookending a pivotal weekend in the Guinness Men’s Six Nations, our main focus falls on Murrayfield to see whether Scotland pipe up or pipe down in what is shaping up to be the proverbial game for the purists.
The 38-38 draw between England at Scotland in 2019 was a genuine Six Nations classic but when these two old enemies meet in Edinburgh, it normally descends into a battle of the boot.
It always seems to rain whenever England have to travel north and while this weekend is forecast to be different, Murrayfield has its own micro-climate. Even if the skies are blue not grey, it is hard to see the latest chapter in this age-old rivalry bucking the trend.
The last 10 Scotland-England matches at Murrayfield have averaged just 29 points per game, and in the 12 fixtures played in Edinburgh since the Championship was expanded to six teams, the average match aggregate try count is just two.
Only one match in the history of this Six Nations fixture when Scotland have been at home has featured more than four tries (five in 2004), while there were three consecutive matches, from 2006 to 2010, that ended try-less.
Knowing how our luck has been this tournament, it will probably rain tries! But logic says, especially when one of the teams (England) has such a blunt-looking attack, UNDER 4.5 TRIES is the way to go.
In the arm-wrestles that have gone before, you would expect a heavy-duty forwards would be prominent in the try-scoring stakes. The reality is different, though.
Breaking down the scoring stats is instructive as, actually, back-three players accounted for 15 of the 23 tries scored in open play (the other was a penalty try). Unsurprisingly, Duhan van der Merwe is an even-money chance in the anytime try-scorer market after his stunning brace in last year’s fixture.
But if you’re looking for a bigger priced option, it could be all-White on the night if you opt for Scotland scrum-half BEN WHITE.
White has two tries in two Tests against England and one of the quirkier stats is that all four of his Test tries have come against teams wearing white – England, Fiji and, latterly, France, when Les Bleus bucked tradition and played in their change strip at Murrayfield a fortnight ago. Sky Bet’s odds on the Scotland scrum-half crossing the whitewash are a whole point better than what most layers are offering.
For England to be 17/10 underdogs away to Scotland when they are still on course for a Grand Slam – however slim those chances may be – speaks volumes and we expect a Scotland team fired-up by the injustice of the no-try decision at the end of the France game to have enough about them and edge out England.
There could be a noticeable momentum shift on the match though if the previous two rounds are anything to go by. England have trailed at the break in both those games, conceding 82% of their points in the first half, but have improved in the second, whereas Scotland tail off as games wear on. They have failed to score a single point in the final quarter of matches, so it stands to reason that they will need to build up a lead if they are going to make it four wins in a row against England.
Expect Finn Russell to try and make life as uncomfortable as possible at the back for George Furbank on his return to the side after nearly two years out. Furbank dropped a few bloopers in his last outing against France, some 27 Tests ago, and aerially he is not in the same league as the man he has displaced, Freddie Steward.
If Russell can impose himself on the game for the whole 80 minutes this time rather than just one half, and continue to kick his goals, it is tailor-made for him to be Player of the Match for those pondering that market.
As there is no margin for error, backing the DRAW ON THE HANDICAP carries more risk than singing ‘Swing Low, Sweet Chariot’ down Prince’s Street on Calcutta Cup weekend but, if you’re ever going to be tempted, this could well be the match to try your luck.
Scotland are taken to win, but the margin should be somewhere in line with handicap expectations.
Posted at 0825 GMT on 23/02/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ
