FWD QEII Cup preview: Trio target Romantic Warrior scalp

Three, that’s the magic number at Sha Tin this Sunday.

A trio of international G1 contests worth HK$72m (£7.4m) will command the global spotlight on Champions Day as Romantic Warrior bids to become the first horse to win the FWD QEII Cup for a third time.

Meanwhile, three fascinating global raiders and a dynamic young Derby hero return aiming to make it third time lucky at Sha Tin in a race with a rich and varied history.

Much has changed since the late Queen Elizabeth witnessed the first running of the race named in her honour in May 1975.

The QEII Cup was a Class 2 on the Happy Valley sand track in those days but Sha Tin has been its home since 1979 with colourful globetrotters like Presvis on the honour roll alongside Hong Kong aces such as Vengeance of Rain, Ambitious Dragon and Pakistan Star.

Only three horses have won the race twice since its promotion to G1 status in 2001 - including Eishin Preston (2002/2003) and Viva Pataca (2007/2010) – but connections of Hong Kong’s most accomplished 2000m performer are hoping to eclipse that famous pair on Sunday.

Hometown hero sets a high bar

Pandemic restrictions meant that Romantic Warrior beat a purely domestic field in commanding style for his first QEII Cup success under Karis Teetan in 2022.

International raiders were back in force in 2023 but the result was much the same as Danny Shum’s gelding powered clear with James McDonald saluting the crowd as Prognosis and Dubai Honour battled for minor placings.

Romantic Warrior has scaled even greater heights since last April, giving Hong Kong a first Cox Plate success amid epic scenes at Moonee Valley then following up with a second LONGINES Hong Kong Cup win and a brave defeat of Voyage Bubble as the Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup turned into a duel between Derby winners.

And, with his place among the world’s best middle-distance horses firmly established, a deeper dive into the Warrior’s record makes several things crystal clear.

His record over his optimum trip of 2000m is exceptional, while his courage in tight spots is illustrated by three successive photo finish wins this season, the first by a nose and the last two by a short head and a neck.

In addition, his consistency is impossible to fault, with nothing approaching a below-par performance on his eighteen-race record; and Romantic Warrior’s peak international rating of 123 sets the QEII Cup bar at a level that precious few horses in the world can match.

Hungry Haggas seeking honour and glory

So why are three familiar global raiders returning to take him on again along with this year’s fast-improving Derby winner?

A prize fund of HK$28m clearly plays a significant part but a sense of unfinished business could be at play for connections of two stars from Japan and another from Britain.

Newmarket trainer William Haggas is desperate to add a Hong Kong G1 to his major race haul and Dubai Honour returns to Sha Tin with a wealth of international experience.

Fourth in the 2021 Hong Kong Cup and third in last year’s QEII, the six-year-old looked as good as ever when stretching clear on his return from a break at Kempton recently and Haggas is hoping for a low draw and smoother sailing than on two previous visits.

Eight-year-olds tend to struggle in international G1 contests but Golden Sixty has bucked that trend already this season and the rugged Viva Pataca was the same age when winning his second QEII.

Whether Hishi Iguazu can strike another blow for the old guard remains to be seen but Noriyuki Hori’s gelding has gone down fighting in two Hong Kong Cups under Joao Moreira and will have the assistance of Aussie star Damian Lane for his third Sha Tin visit.

And then we have a formidable four-year-old in Massive Sovereign, who produced a withering run to win the BMW Hong Kong Derby under Zac Purton last month and now bids to win one of racing’s most cherished 2000m prizes on just his third start in Hong Kong.

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But perhaps the most significant threat to Romantic Warrior comes from a horse who has much in common with the most recent Japanese QEII Cup winner, namely Loves Only You.

Yoshito Yahagi’s globetrotter landed the spring showpiece under Vincent Ho as Japan supplied the first four home in 2021 and Prognosis shares a sire (Deep Impact) and a regular rider (Yuga Kawada) with that hugely popular mare.

More importantly, recent evidence suggests Prognosis may be growing out of a habit that has held him back on high-profile occasions in the past.

Zac Purton did his homework ahead of last year’s QEII and reported that Prognosis “looks like he’s a bit of a bolter,” while Kawada said “he has big potential but it is so hard to get him to demonstrate his true ability” after a runaway Sapporo Kinen win last summer.

But getting a headstrong horse to relax in the early stages of a major race can come at a price when a rival as rugged as Romantic Warrior is jumping out alertly to secure the saloon passage.

Left poorly placed in steadily run races when second and fifth in last year’s QEII and Hong Kong Cups, Prognosis recorded the fastest closing split on both occasions and his back-to-back wins in the last two renewals of the Kinko Sho provided further evidence of how much a true pace helps his cause.

Prognosis had to work hard to secure that G2 in a tactical affair at Chukyo last year but he looked a different proposition in a strongly run 2024 edition last month, settling beautifully in midfield under a confident Kawada then storming five lengths clear of the impressive Japanese St Leger hero Durezza to record a career best effort.

Put simply, the prognosis for Prognosis looks positive if probable front runner Sword Point sets a solid gallop in the most valuable prize on Champions Day.

Romantic Warrior chases history but Dubai Honour, Prognosis and Hishi Iguazu all have unfinished business in Hong Kong and Massive Sovereign adds a compelling Classic angle to the mix.

It’s a potent cocktail and one digit resonates for all the main fancies in this year’s QEII Cup. That digit is three. No more, no less. That’s the magic number.

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