Alex Hammond blog | bet365 Gold Cup preview and tips

Who’d have thought that Willie Mullins would be adding this extra spice to the end of the 2023/24 National Hunt season?

With Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton seemingly in an intriguing battle to see if the apprentice would beat the master for the first time, Willie jumped in at the furlong pole and cruised into contention. He enjoyed an incredible weekend at Ayr’s Scottish National fixture and the momentum has continued throughout the week with the Irish legend sending horses to all parts of Britain. I’m lucky enough to be involved in the Closutton Racing Club who have horses in training with him and that involved a trip to the famous training establishment a few years ago. Of all the memories I have of that day, my favourite was when Willie proudly showed off his collection of ducks! It was wonderful to see him so engaged in something that wasn’t racing. He’s a pretty laid back chap anyway but it was charming and is an abiding memory of that trip.

So, it may seem like I’m being disloyal when I say I’ll love seeing the great man win this year’s championship as allegiances should surely lie with those on this side of the Irish Sea, but after what has been another superb campaign for the perennial Irish champion, he deserves to win one over here too. It was 70 years ago that Vincent O’Brien won the British trainer’s title whilst being based in Ireland and it’s fitting that Mullins follows in those famous footsteps.

He’s also the most successful trainer in history at the Cheltenham festival with 103 victories after another haul this year, and the Grand National win with I Am Maximus was icing on top of a multi-tiered cake. The cherry on top would be more big race success at Sandown this weekend and that leads me on to the Bet365 Gold Cup.

He has nine horses declared for the end of season meeting at the Esher track with a third of those running in the feature handicap chase at 3.35pm. Paul Townend has plumped for Nick Rockett, Danny Mullins is on Minella Cocooner and Sean O’Keeffe gets up on Aime Desjy. However, Dan Skelton hasn’t admitted defeat in the title race, he has declared five runners at the meeting with Le Milos his representative in the feature. Paul Nicholls has more ammunition with 11 horses declared to run.

Sky Bet are paying seven places instead of four on the race and have Kitty’s Light as their 7/2 market leader. The horse deserves his lofty perch given his record at Sandown in this race, but I have reservations about his chance. His record will show he was runner up in 2021, was third in 2022 and won the contest last year. However, he was badly hampered on his first attempt so can be classed as unlucky not to have won. Those performances have come off handicap marks of 139, 145 and 140. He’s rated 145 again this year. He ran well in the Grand National two weeks ago and we won’t know if that has taken the twinkle out of his toes until push comes to shove. So, at the price I’m happy to take him on.

Dan Skelton will hope he can spoil the Mullins party with Le Milos but whilst it’s mathematically possible for him to pip Mullins at the post in the championship it’s extremely unlikely. 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos hasn’t run over fences since finishing 10th in last year's Grand National. He doesn’t look badly treated on his big handicap win at Newbury eighteen months ago and he hasn’t had the opportunity to do what he excels at since this time last year. He’s a 13/2 shot.

The same championship comment applies to Nicholls, but I do think he holds strong claims of winning the Bet365 Gold Cup with Threeunderthrufive. The stats show how tough it has been in recent years to carry top weight to victory in this marathon contest, but Nicholls persuaded his owners to bypass the Grand National to come here instead for a race he deemed more suitable for his smart chaser. He knows what it takes to win the race with a top weight having won it in 2012 with Tidal Bay who did just that aged 11 no less. He was rated 154, this lad is off 156 and is just a nine year old, so at his peak, or certainly on his way to reaching it. This lad handles the better ground that he’ll experience at Sandown, but his jumping will need to be slick for a track like Sandown, which could be a slight concern. He’s 6/1 second favourite at the time of writing.

What about the Mullins team then? Nick Rockett is the obvious one with his number one rider in the plate. He’s 13/2 with Minella Cocooner 15/2. Nick Rockett was sent off favourite to win the Irish National but that didn’t work out as he came home in 10th on the heavy ground. He’s still only a seven year old and will be a smashing staying chaser in the future. Minella Cocooner finished third at Fairyhouse and he should appreciate the better ground at Sandown.

Henry de Bromhead saddles Amirite, the mount of Rachael Blackmore. He didn’t get the best passage round at Leopardstown on his last outing and hasn’t won for 18 months. He’s only run six times since that win mind you. He’s an 8/1 shot.

One at an each-way price that could run into a place is the Henry Daly trained Rapper, who is 20/1. He was only a length behind Threeunderthrufive in the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot in February and whilst he ran ugly, he stuck to his task in the reapplied visor, which he retains on Saturday. The better ground suits him and whilst he’s not straightforward, a test like this should suit.

Kinondo Kwetu made a name for himself in the summer/autumn of 2022 when notching up a sequence of five wins for trainer Sam England when first sent chasing. He’s gone on to acquit himself well in higher company and isn’t out of it now the ground has dried out. He’s had a quiet season, I assume due to the wet conditions, but ran well after a break and comes here with a serious chance. He’s yet to race over a trip quite this far but I see no reason he won’t get it. At 12/1 he rates an each-way prospect.

So, to narrow that down, it’s a red hot race as you’d expect but top of my shortlist are Threeunderthrufive and Kinondo Kwetu. Good luck with your selections.

Elsewhere, I’m keen on GA Law in the Bet365 Oaksey Chase. He’s a 6/1 shot with Sky Bet. He’ll be happier back in Grade Two company having run in the Ryanair Chase at the festival last time out and whilst he hasn’t stayed 3-mile plus in the past, this two and three quarter mile trip should be more within his comfort zone.

The performance of El Fabiolo in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham was a shock after a serious jumping error resulted in Paul Townend pulling him up. He’s 4/6 favourite to make amends in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase on Saturday but his jumping will need to be slick to tackle the Railway fences effectively. That’s not usually an issue for Jonbon at this venue as he is three from three at Sandown (all over fences) and it may be worth taking the favourite on with Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old who drops back in trip having won at Aintree last time. He may well be better over two-and-a-half miles plus in the future but hopefully he’ll get away with it in this. We know he’s capable of a shocker at his fences too, but I hope his good record at Sandown will continue. He’s 9/4 second fav.

Finally, it looks as though Harry Cobden will be champion jockey for the first time and I’ve really enjoyed the competition between himself and Sean Bowen recently. Either jockey would be a worthy champion but a spell on the sidelines with a more serious than reported knee injury put paid to Bowen’s hopes. Despite a determined late rally, it looks unlikely that he will ride the required number of winners needed to overhaul his friend and colleague.

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