Premier League top scorer odds: Can Ollie Watkins win Golden Boot?

• Published before Villa 0-4 Tottenham

As the Premier League season has unfolded, Ollie Watkins has spearheaded this rise and emerged as one of the division’s standout players.

He has set up more and scored more non-penalty goals than any other player - even Erling Haaland. Watkins also tops the charts for big chances created within the Villa squad.

With Euro 2024 around the corner too, he is hitting form at just the right time - for club and country.

Premier League goalscorer charts

• Erling Haaland - 18
• Ollie Watkins - 16
• Mohamed Salah - 15
• Dominic Solanke, Jarrod Bowen, Heung-Min Son - 14
• Bukayo Saka - 13

Premier League top goalscorer odds (via Sky Bet)

• Erling Haaland - 1/5
• Mohamed Salah, Ollie Watkins - 7/1
• Heung-Min Son - 18/1
• Dominic Solanke - 20/1
• Bukayo Saka - 28/1
• Jarrod Bowen - 33/1

How much is Watkins worth now?

According to our Player Valuation Model, Watkins has an Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of €50million. His consistent performances over the past few seasons have seen him become one of the most valuable forwards in the English top flight.

Villa have been building an ambitious project, but recorded a post-tax operating loss of £119.6m last season. While Watkins will likely be considered untouchable, the club may need to explore options to raise funds to comply with profit and sustainability rules.

Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs will all be in the market for a striker in the summer, but with the 28-year-old England international hitting his peak, it would likely take a massive bid to prise him away from Villa Park.

Playing closer to goal

In past seasons, Watkins was less active in the penalty box and often contributed across the middle and attacking thirds.

But manager Unai Emery has transformed the England international into an elite poacher, who is instructed to stay in and around the box and avoid dropping deep or going wide.

Watkins can now capitalise on his ability to isolate defenders and use his movement to run off their shoulder and pull them out of position.

This adjustment is reflected in his reduced touches per 90 compared to previous seasons. Watkins now focuses on taking more touches in dangerous areas, with almost 25% occurring in the opposition box.

Thriving in the box

This is exactly where Emery wants him to operate, and the former Brentford man has been thriving, taking over 30% more shots than last season, primarily from inside the box.

All of his goals have come from this area, where he has showcased his all-round finishing ability, with nine goals with his stronger right, four with his left and three with his head.

Watkins’ goals and expected goals (xG) figures have been steadily rising over the past three seasons. His xG of 0.54 per 90 this season is only bettered by Haaland, and highlights his ability to consistently get into excellent goalscoring positions.

Expected goals on target (xGOT) is a post-shot variation of xG that assesses the quality of the shots on target. Watkins’ xGOT of 0.60 per 90 exceeds his xG figure, demonstrating his ability to execute better quality shots from the chances he gets.

More than just a scoring threat

The drop-off in the form of Moussa Diaby has seen Watkins also take on some of the creative burden in this Villa side. While he makes the same amount of passes as before, what he does with the ball is now more valuable.

As a result, he has accumulated more expected assists (xA) than in any of his previous seasons. He now produces more key passes and attempts more through balls and passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes, establishing himself as the most creative number 9 in the league.

A combination of all the above has seen Villa’s number 9 double his goal-creating actions to 0.83 per 90, putting him amongst the best forwards in not just the Premier League but also the top five European leagues.

Watkins is only two goals behind Haaland, and his consistent performances could realistically see him challenge the Norwegian for the Golden Boot.

Odds correct at 1245 BST (12/03/24)

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