Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Brazilian Serie A, Ligue 2, MLS
- Follow @MarkOHaire
- Mark is -2.79pts for the 23/24 season
Football betting tips: Weekend
3pts Botafogo to beat Bahia at Evens (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' in Guingamp vs St Etienne at Evens (Sky Bet)
2.5pts San Jose Earthquakes vs LAFC – BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals at Evens (Sky Bet)
- The above are enhanced prices with a £25 max stake
CLICK HERE to add selections to your bet slip and for a 7/1 boosted treble
Botafogo vs Bahia
- Kick-off time: 22:30 BST, Sunday
- Home 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 16/5
Botafogo (W3-D0-L1) are the early pacesetters in the Brasileiro with O Glorioso’s opening efforts suggesting the Rio de Janeiro club could challenge for top honours this term. Fogo brought highly-rated Braga coach Artur Jorge to the club in April and the €2m managerial move already appears to be paying dividends with the side impressing in both boxes.
The table-toppers have notched 10 goals in their first four fixtures and produced a statement performance last time out to overcome city rivals and ante-post favourites Flamengo 2-0 at the Maracana without conceding a single shot on target. A return to their Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos this Sunday night should stand Botafogo in good stead.
Bahia head to Rio with the visitors sitting fifth(W2-D1-L1). The visitors opened their account with eye-catching victories over Fluminense and Gremio on home soil but have since faltered on their travels, losing 2-1 at Internacional before a 2-2 draw at newly-promoted Vitoria, haemorrhaging opportunities on both occasions.
Across their two away days, Bahia gave up 30 shots, 17 on-target efforts and almost four Expected Goals (xG). Include all competitions and the guests have now shipped multiple strikes in five successive away days this term, whilst Bahia have also suffered 13 league losses in 21 Brasileiro battles since the start of last term, firing blanks on 11 occasions.
I’m happy to back BOTAFOGO TO WIN here.
San Jose Earthquakes vs LAFC
- Kick-off time: 00:30 BST, Sunday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 23/20
We’re around 10 matchdays deep into the new Major League Soccer season and the Stateside division has been producing plenty of entertainment in its embryonic stage in 2024.
Across both conferences, MLS is averaging 2.89 goals per game with 60% of contests featuring OVER 2.5 GOALS winners and 64% of dates delivering BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE profit.
I’m happy to combine both markets and back Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS when San Jose host LAFC in the early hours of Sunday morning. It should be a goal-heavy showdown with these two teams combining to see this particular selection pay out in 13 (65%) of their 20 matches thus far. However, that hit-rate doesn’t explain all.
San Jose are the second-worst performing side in MLS thus far, losing eight of their 10 openers and conceding a league-high 25 goals (shipping 2+ in nine of ten). But the Earthquakes have notched on eight occasions themselves with matches averaging 3.90 goals per game – we’ve already enjoyed two 4-3s, a 3-2, a 3-1 and three 2-1s.
Meanwhile, LAFC are in the top-third but their Jekyll and Hyde nature can’t be ignored. The Falcons have picked up a solitary point from four away games, shipping 10 goals in the process, and so make little appeal as short-priced favourites here. Instead, support goals with LAFC’s last five fixtures reading 3-2, 2-2, 2-2, 2-1, 2-3.
Guingamp vs St Etienne
- Kick-off time: 18:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 6/4
Ligue 2 is traditionally a low-scoring league and France’s second-tier has followed those long-term trends this term with an average of 2.42 goals per game and 53% of fixtures seeing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' oblige.
Saturday evening’s showdown between play-off-chasing Guingamp and second-placed St Etienne promises to be another tight affair. Guingamp have collected seven clean sheets in 17 home Ligue 2 matches, 11 of which banked for BTTS 'No' backers.
But St Etienne’s rearguard efforts deserve huge plaudits with Les Verts boasting the best defensive record in the division, shipping just 26 goals in 35 fixtures, silencing nine of their last 12 opponents and recording 10 clean sheets in 17 away.
St Etienne’s outings have proven particularly low-scoring across the campaign, averaging only 2.00 goals per-game.
Our proposed BTTS 'No' angle of attack has proven profitable in 71% of those overall encounters, increasing to 76% when Les Verts have taken to their travels.
Odds correct at 1030 BST (2/5/24)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
