Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 534pts | Returned 574.55pts | P/L +40.55pts | ROI 7.6%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 - Arsenal vs Burnley
2.5pts Piero Hincapie to win 1+ foul at 4/5 (bet365) - min price 4/7
0.5pt Piero Hincapie to score anytime at 11/1 (bet365) - min price 7/1
Arsenal vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Most people have this game as a formality - a comfortable Arsenal win. It's hard to disagree, especially with the title in their sights. The Gunners are priced at 1/10 to beat the worst team in the league, and that's fair enough really.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them do it in a cagey way, or completely blowing Burnley to bits, but I see little value in the main markets.
Instead, we should focus our attentions on set-pieces. After all, Arsenal are playing.
No team has scored more set-piece goals (21) or racked up more xG from dead-balls (20.10) than the Gunners this season, while Burnley in fact prop up the set-piece xG conceded table (17.23), so this quite literally the best set-piece team against the worst.
Gabriel Magalhaes, always the first port of call, is shockingly short here at shorter than 4/1, the second port of call is Riccardo Calafiori and not only is he a major doubt, but he's priced at 13/2 (Betway) and a general 9/2.
If he's out, we'll likely see PIERO HINCAPIE come in at left-back and at a best price of 11/1 with plenty of 9/1 available, he gets the nod. He's hardly prolific in terms of goalscoring, but has been getting shots away regularly of late.
The Ecuadorian has fired at least one shot in seven of his last 13 starts across all competitions, scoring in that time too, so looks a tad big to my eye at the prices, especially given the big cheese will be Gabriel.
Sticking with HINCAPIE and I think there is value in backing him TO WIN 1+ FOUL at 4/5. Opposing left-backs facing Burnley have been fouled at least once in eight of their last 10 league matches, while Hincapie has been winning plenty of fouls recently.
He's landed this bet in nine of his last 13 starts, being fouled 12 times in total, so against a Burnley right side that are foul heavy, 4/5 seems generous.
Hopefully he starts now...
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (15/05/26)
Already advised
Friday 20:00 - Aston Villa vs Liverpool
1pt Ibrahima Konate to be carded at 11/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 2/1
1pt Curtis Jones to be carded at 9/2 (Betway) - min price 2/1
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The dynamics of this game are tough to gauge in my opinion. A win for either team guarantees a top five finish and Champions League football, but with the Europa League final just five days after this, Aston Villa could rotate heavily, and then there is a case to be made a draw could suit both.
Bournemouth are the chasers, and draw in this match would mean the Cherries needing maximum points from their last two games at home to Manchester City and away at Nottingham Forest to have any chance of catching either Villa or Liverpool, putting serious pressure on.
A Villa defeat could prove very costly for their top five chances as it would really open the door for Bournemouth, especially with Unai Emery taking his side to the Etihad on the final day. Of course, if they win the UEL, nothing else really matters.
Emery went strong last weekend at Burnley after his side swept Nottingham Forest aside in the second-leg of their semi-final, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go strong from the start again here - before subbing key players off early - in a bid to wrap up UCL football via the league route and ease some pressure on winning the UEL.
After all, this Liverpool team are no great shakes - especially away from home. Across all competitions the Reds have lost six of their last eight away games, with two wins coming at Wolves in the FA Cup and in the Merseyside derby thanks to a 100th minute goal.
Whatever happens I think this game will be competitive, and with a good referee in Chris Kavanagh (4.04 cards per game this season), we'll hit our tried and tested card angle when Villa are involved.
While neither Burnley's right-back or centre-back were carded last weekend, the pair committed three fouls between them, so that result wasn't too discouraging. After all. splitting stakes on the RB and RCB to be carded would have delivered profit in 12 of Villa's last 14 league games.
So, that means IBRAHIMA KONATE and CURTIS JONES are backed TO BE CARDED at 11/4 and 9/2 respectively. Konate has been booked six times in the Premier League this season, nine across all competitions, while Jones has been carded once in his last four starts at right back, committing six fouls, and will be properly tested here.
Keep an eye on team news ahead of kick-off as there is a chance Joe Gomez plays centre-back in place of Konate, with the Frenchman coming off after 77 minutes last weekend with what is thought to be cramp. He should be fine, but if Gomez starts, cash out on Konate and back him instead - he was booked as a sub last week.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 09:20 BST (14/05/26)
ALREADY ADVISED
Sunday 12:30 - Man Utd vs N Forest
1.5pts Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 2/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/4
0.5pt Bruno Fernandes 2+ assist at 12/1 (Boylesports) - min price 7/1
Sunday 15:00
2pt Nathan Collins 1+ total shot in Brentford vs C Palace at 17/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 1/2
2pt Sepp van den Berg 1+ total shot in Brentford vs C Palace at 4/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 1/2
2pts Over 3.5 cards in Leeds vs Brighton at 19/20 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) - min price 4/6
Sunday 17:30 - Newcastle vs West Ham
2.5pts Crysencio Summerville to commit 2+ fouls at 11/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/6
1pt Crysencio Summerville to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet) - min price 5/2
0.5pt Jarred Bowen to be carded at 9/1 (Sky Bet) - min price 5/1
0.5pt Summerville to score and be carded at 14/1 (Paddy Power) - min price 8/1
0.5pt Bowen to score and be carded at 24/1 (Paddy Power) - min price 16/1
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
A dead rubber for both teams means this game could be quite fun. Well, I hope so, as I thought the same last week as Manchester United went to Sunderland, only for that game to end goalless...
United have been an excellent home team under Michael Carrick, scoring far more goals in front of their own fans, netting 18 in eight, which makes me believe this could be the game that sees goals and that leads me right back to BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST. Likely for the last time this season.
He is still one assist away from equalling the Premier League record of 20, and two away from breaking it, so in the final home game of the season United as a team will be doing everything in their power to get him at least one, if not two, assists against a Nottingham Forest side who don't have anything left to play for after securing survival last weekend.
It's 2/1 for Bruno to get the one assist, and to say he played with the second-string last week at the Stadium of Light - Joshua Zirkzee in for Benjamin Sesko and Amad Diallo for Bryan Mbeumo - he still created four chances, that after creating six chances against Liverpool.
While not registering an assist in either game, he has racked up 1.04 expected assists, so has been banging on the door, so much so we'll row in again on the 12/1 for 2+ ASSISTS because I would be sick if he did it in this game and we weren't on board.
Please, Bruno, don't let us down.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 12:20 BST (14/05/26)
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Crystal Palace were at it again in midweek, not competing. They fielded what looked a strong team at the Etihad on Wednesday against a much-changed Manchester City side, only to lose extremely tamely 3-0. A similar away performance could be on the cards here as all of their attentions are on the Europa Conference League final.
Brentford were also on the receiving end of a 3-0 loss at the Etihad last weekend, though they did at least play against City's first team. They return home having dropped to eighth and now four points off sixth, but still just two behind seventh which as things stands would be a UECL place. Should City have won the FA Cup, seventh would be UEL and eighth would be UECL, so the Bees really have it all to play for.
A home win is priced accordingly at 3/4, but after the success of last week in backing Everton centre-backs for shots against Palace - one of which scored - given the Bees are a set-piece centric side, the same approach is taken.
SEPP VAN DEN BERG and NATHAN COLLINS are priced at 4/5 and 17/20 respectively for 1+ SHOT and both are to be backed.
Collins has fired eight shots in his last 10 appearances and Van den Berg has fired 11 in his last 10 so both have been on the end of chances, and Palace have conceded the fifth-most goals, fourth-most shots and fourth most xG from set-pieces this season.
Brentford, despite scoring only nine set-piece goals, have taken the fourth-most shots (156) and generated the third most xG (17.08) from dead-balls in 25/26, so this looks another mismatch to take advantage of.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (14/05/26)
Everton vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
There is a case to be made that both Everton and Sunderland are still in with an outside chance of qualifying for Europe. It's a longshot for the pair, likely needing to win both of their remaining matches, though neither have performed well enough of late to suggest that could be a possibility.
I've struggled to get a handle on Sunderland down the stretch, so this game will be a rare no-bet for us as nothing stood out to me in the markets, especially with Everton short enough at 4/5.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (14/05/26)
Leeds vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds are safe, but Monday nights game at Tottenham shows that they are yet to get the sandals out of the loft. I'm reliably informed by Tom Carnduff that the players are on a hefty bonus depending on how high they finish in the league, so that is a lovely bit of extra motivation - alongside derailing Brighton's European push.
The Seagulls don't need any more motivation other than qualifying for Europe, with them currently seventh and, should they win here, jump up to sixth which would secure Europa League qualification - and possible Champions League qualification should Aston Villa win the Europa and finish exactly fifth.
So, with a cracking referee appointment in Michael Oliver, we have to take OVER 3.5 CARDS at a shade of odds-on. Oliver has been in sensational form lately, hitting the 4+ card bet in 13 of his last 15 games.
Brighton are an extremely obliging team when it comes to cards this season, their games averaging 4.5 cards, and given what's on the line for them, we could be in for another high-card game.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (14/05/26)
Wolves vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports F1
- Live odds, form and stats
Wolves - bad. Fulham - beach. That's my take anyway.
The Cottagers are a tough team to trust at the moment with little to play for, a manager on his way out and a number of players likely gearing up for the World Cup, so while 19/20 for an away win did look appealing, it's swerved, and we have a second no bet of the column.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (14/05/26)
Newcastle vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like must-win territory for West Ham now. Fail to do so and they could be relegated without playing next midweek, and best case scenario they will be in the bottom three heading into the final day. Win and their fate could be in their hands.
On paper Newcastle are the perfect opponent. A side who's season has petered out, who's star players anchoring for moves and absent and who have plenty of injuries to deal with. The only problem is I thought this way in their last home game only for the Magpies to smash an in-form Brighton who also had a lot to play for.
Swerving the match odds then, we have to focus on fouls and cards given the desperation likely on show from the Hammers, with CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE's price of 4/1 TO BE CARDED and 11/10 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS jumping off the page.
The flying Dutch winger is a fouling machine, averaging 1.92 fouls per 90, and picking up six cards as a result (0.24 per 90). Interestingly he's been carded in both of his last two as the pressure has ramped up, collecting three in his last seven, a run that has also seen him land the 2+ fouls bet on six occasions.
He'll be in and around some of the league's best foul drawers on Sunday, I'm looking at you Bruno Guimaraes, with a high chance Lewis Hall will again play right-back which would be a perfect match-up for this bet.
Jarred Gillet is the man with the whistle, and while averaging 3.62 cards per game, is coming off a five card match on Monday night as Tottenham drew with Leeds. He's dished out four or more cards in seven of his last nine too.
While not as prolific as his fellow winger, we'll also back JARRED BOWEN TO BE CARDED at a huge 9/1. The West Ham captain will be all out here trying to drag his side to a win, and has a cynical streak in him as we've seen this season. Should the Hammers get in front, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll be doing everything to help keep that lead.
Bowen has been carded four times in his last 22 league games, committing 14 fouls in that time, but I see plenty of avenues this card bet can go close from dissent towards the referee, which he was booked for at Manchester City, an accumulation of fouls, which he was booked for against Brighton, a cynical foul or the big one - a late goal followed by a shirt off moment.
Given the stakes and the fact the games are running out, should Bowen score a late winner the top has to come off right, surely? I think there is a chance the captain leads from the front and SCORES ANYTIME as well as GETTING CARDED so we'll back the double at 24/1. He's West Ham's top scorer and penalty taker.
We also strongly fancy Summerville for a card so we'll take the same bet about West Ham's other biggest attacking threat, with 14/1 available for him TO SCORE AND GET CARDED. Newcastle are not the force of recent seasons at St. James Park, failing to win nine of their 18 home league games, so a big result is in the realms of possibility for relegation battling West Ham.
It goes without saying that the last three bets are rather speculative, hence the price, so staking accordingly is advised. This column has done so in a way that should Summerville commit two fouls we'll make a profit no matter the result of the rest of the bets.
Final note here, if the game is level and Callum Wilson is brought on, check the price about him to score an be carded in-play. It landed against Everton recently as he scored a late winner, and the added incentive here is that he was let go for a free by Newcastle at the start of the season.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 14:00 BST (15/05/26)
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