Football tips, predictions and best bets: Europa League & Europa Conference League 02/05/24
Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Marseille vs Atalanta at 10/11 (General)
1pt Leandro Paredes to be be carded in Roma vs Leverkusen at 5/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Ollie Watkins to score anytime in Villa vs Olympiakos at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
Marseille vs Atalanta
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 7/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 9/5
And then there were four. The Europa League semi-finals have thrown up two mouthwatering clashes laced with narrative.
Marseille host Atalanta in the first at the Stade Vélodrome.
The Italians pulled off a shock in the last round, eliminating competition favourites Liverpool with an emphatic 3-0 win at Anfield in the first leg.
Meanwhile, the French side came out of a group featuring Ajax and Brighton, and have beaten Shakhtar Donetsk, Villarreal and Benfica in the knock-out stages.
Although goals are usually at a premium in these tightly wound, nervy two legged affairs, I don’t think this will be the case in the south of France.
OVER 2.5 GOALS clicked in five of Marseille’s six knock-out games and half of Atalanta’s. At a shade of odds on, that is the bet here.
Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 5/2 | Draw 5/2 | Away 21/20
This one pits Daniele De Rossi’s Roma against Xabi Alonso’s Bundesliga Champions Bayer Leverkusen.
The hosts have thwarted Feyenoord, Brighton and Milan en route to the final four with tight fisted performances. Penalties saw them edge-out the Dutch side, a frantic first leg was enough against the Seagulls and a valiant second leg featuring two early goals and a red card did it against Milan.
33 cards were awarded in I Giallorossi’s six knock-out games and I think that avenue is worth exploring here.
LEANDRO PAREDES is the hosts' serial offender with 16 cards to his name this term, a staggering 14 of which have come in Serie A making him the most cynical player in the Italian top flight.
He is expected to start at the base of Roma’s midfield on Thursday meaning he will be tasked with containing the German side's dynamic midfield.
Exequiel Palacios, Granit Xhaka and Florian Wirtz all feature and the trio combine to draw an average of 4.6 fouls per game domestically.
You can only imagine how many fouls a man who averages a card every two and a half games will commit and at 5/2, Paredes price TO BE SHOWN A CARD looks too large.
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Bryan Cristante 2+ Fouls
- Leandro Paredes 2+ Fouls
- Lorenzo Pellegrini 2+ Fouls
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Roma’s midfield is going to have its work cut out trying to contain Bayer’s. In the last round, West Ham’s midfield trio committed 13 fouls in the second leg, all of them committing at least two fouls. Backing Paredes, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Bryan Chistante to do the same provides some interest.
Aston Villa vs Olympiakos
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 2/5 | Draw 7/2 | Away 6/1
Aston Villa have Emi Martinez’s penalty exploits to thank for their spot in the Europa Conference League semi-finals.
The Argentine international, and French pantomime villain, foiled Lille, though it came with a hefty price. The stopper picked up his second yellow in the shoot-out, rendering him suspended here.
Emi Martinez saves and wins Aston Villa the penalty shootout to progress to the semi-finals! 🧤
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) April 18, 2024
And he celebrates right in front of the Lille fans 😳#UECL pic.twitter.com/u4Xq836xck
With a European connoisseur in the dugout and one of the most inform strikers across the continent spearheading their attack, the Villans should be just fine.
The latter, OLLIE WATKINS’ price TO SCORE ANYTIME looks worth a tout here.
Watkins has netted 21 goals and set up a further 12 term and with a goals per 90 average of 0.58, meaning an odds-against price cannot be scoffed at.
Odds correct at 1630 BST (30/04/24)
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