Everton's conversion issues in front of goal behind relegation fears
For a while it looked as though Everton’s points deduction for breaching Premier League profit and sustainability rules would be the galvanising force Sean Dyche needed to get his brutal, blunt-force football truly up and running at Goodison Park.
- Published before Everton's defeats by West Ham and Man Utd
There is nothing better for a drill sergeant type than a cause to fight for and an enemy to fight against.
And then winter happened, Everton froze, and all of a sudden they’re left in the ignominious position of celebrating winning an appeal not on principle, but because the four points clawed back are as many as they’ve won on the pitch in the last five matches.
The bad run goes back further than that. Everton have gone nine Premier League matches without a win.
They’ve won one of the last 13 in all competitions, and that was a 1-0 victory over a rock-bottom Crystal Palace in the FA Cup.
The last time Dyche experienced a run like this he limped on for a couple of months before being sacked in April 2022, too late to save Burnley from relegation.
Everton could easily go the same way, and not only because there is a second accusation of breaching profit and sustainability rules hanging over them.
Premier League relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- Sheffield Utd - 1/250
- Burnley - 1/25
- Luton Town - 1/2
- Nottingham Forest - 15/8
- Everton - 11/2
Struggling to convert chances
They could go that way for one simple reason: Dominic Calvert-Lewin has forgotten how to score.
Calvert-Lewin has scored three goals from an xG of 9.0, giving him the largest under-performance (-6.0) in the Premier League. His missed opportunities account for 60% of Everton’s total score of -10.0, which is by a distance the worst in the division.
Not even Chelsea are as bad at missing chances.
In better news, such terrible finishing has hidden a genuinely brilliant defensive record.
They have only conceded six goals in their last six Premier League matches. Incredibly, they have the fourth-best defensive record in the division, conceding just 34 goals, with only Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool letting in fewer.
It’s no surprise, then, that Everton are all the way up in eighth on the expected points models, with 39.24 points, some 8.24 fewer more than they’ve won on the pitch (not accounting for the six they have been docked).
It puts them just five points behind Aston Villa (44.95 points) in the fourth Champions League spot.
Based on those numbers, Dyche has every right to assume his luck will soon change, yet as the weeks tick by with Calvert-Lewin’s finishing failing to improve, Everton will eventually run out of road.
At Brighton last weekend, Calvert-Lewin didn’t manage a single shot on goal. That has only happened four times this season, and yet without a goal since October 29 it could soon become a trend as confidence wanes.
Maybe at some point Calvert-Lewin will find the net this season, at which point the goals may start flowing, but if he does not Everton will need to hope the return of their central midfield somehow brings goals from elsewhere in the team.
Availability issues in midfield
A mixture of injuries and the African Cup of Nations have restricted game-time for Abdoulaye Doucoure (three starts since December 16), Amadou Onana (one Premier League start since December 30) and Idrissa Gueye (four starts since December 23).
Dyche’s first choice midfield three haven’t played together since December 10, during an impressive 2-0 victory over Chelsea. It is no coincidence that a victory over Burnley six days later was the last time Everton won three points.
Beyond the obvious point that Everton will perform better when they have those three powerful tacklers side-by-side in a Dyche midfield, Onana and Gueye back together means Doucoure can be pushed back into the number ten role, from where he has become Everton’s top goalscorer in the Premier League this season with six.
But when Gueye or Onana are missing, Doucoure tends to be moved deeper, leaving Everton without a single player capable of putting the ball in the net.
Arnaut Danjuma has been plagued with injuries but has still managed to under-hit his xG to -1.6. Beto, with a single league goal to his name since arriving from Udinese, is on -2.3.
Fortunately, this Saturday’s home game against West Ham is an opportunity for Dyche to turn things around before supporters begin to question his leadership.
Onana, Gueye, and Doucoure should be capable of winning the midfield battle against a West Ham team yet to win an away game in 2024.
Better yet, David Moyes’s side have conceded at least twice in each of their last four matches; 13 in total, including a 6-0 defeat to Arsenal in their most recent away.
It is a huge chance, and all the more significant for being Everton’s last home game – aside from the visit of Liverpool – between now and April 6.
By then, Everton will surely be back in the bottom three if they still haven’t won at Goodison Park this calendar year.
Calvert-Lewin: it is now or never.
Odds correct at 1110 (05/03/24)
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