Ascot Tips for Wednesday: Best value bets for day two of the Royal meeting
There's more top-class action to get stuck into on Wednesday and Matt Brocklebank has three fresh bets to go along with his antepost fancy.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 134pts profit, while he's over 40pts up for the year.
Value Bet tips: Wednesday, June 21
1pt win Tarrabb in 3.05 Royal Ascot at 10/1 (General) - no lower
1pt win Queen Aminatu in 3.40 Royal Ascot at 10/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes) – no lower
1pt e.w. Awaal in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 16/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - 12/1 min
Already advised
Haggas to be cutting a happy figure
Losing Baaeed to the stallion sheds was always going to leave an enormous hole in the yard of William Haggas and it could be a long time before the Newmarket trainer has anything on a par with him, but new stable star My Prospero clearly isn’t just making up the numbers in Wednesday’s Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
My Prospero finished over a length in front of Baaeed on the latter’s disappointing Champions Day swansong when third behind the reopposing Bay Bridge and Adayar over this course and distance in October, and we’ve only seen him once since, when looking a touch rusty and running over an inadequate distance in last month’s Lockinge at Newbury.
That fairly encouraging comeback fourth came towards the back end of what proved to be a rare quiet spell for the Haggas yard and it would be no surprise to see the son of Iffraaj take another significant step forward back up in distance this week.
He arguably represents a spot of value against the Champion Stakes pair who finished in front of him in the autumn when still a relatively raw three-year-old, but throw in Tattersalls Gold Cup winner Luxembourg too and it’s just not a race in which I’m overly keen to be getting financially involved.
Haggas has two other interesting runners on the card, with Relief Rally bidding to extend her perfect record in the Queen Mary Stakes and QUEEN AMINATU up against Prosperous Voyage and Joseph O’Brien’s recent recruit Jumbly in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.
Queen Aminatu, who has a fantastic all-weather record and was an unfortunate second on her only previous visit to Ascot in a seven-furlong Listed race here last autumn (winner got first run), looks a great bet at the odds.
She’s come from relatively humble beginnings and was a real source of frustration when initially switched to the grass last summer, being beaten five times on the spin including a couple of Haydock handicaps when rated just 82.
Her form then took off after the aforementioned fast-finishing Ascot second behind Soft Whisper and she won her next three on synthetic surfaces, the peak performance probably coming out in France when showing a brilliant turn of foot to score by two and a half lengths at Deauville.
That sparked connections into aiming at All Weather Championships Finals day at Newcastle on Good Friday and, without a prep run, she duly delivered the goods at Newcastle, beating inferior rivals without much fuss.
Unfortunately, her next run came at the Curragh when the yard was still under a cloud but she showed much more of her usual zest when third behind stablemate Sacred and Andrew Balding’s Sandrine in a Lingfield Group 3 when last seen in the middle of May.
Kept back for this since, she has a not-too-dissimilar profile to Haggas’s 2019 winner Move Swiftly who was a good all-weather horse herself and I reckon she could easily come up to Prosperous Voyage’s standard with more improvement expected in 2023.
Filly's form to work out well
TARRABB beat Queen Aminatu at Haydock in August when conceding her 2lb and, from just a 7lb higher mark, Owen Burrows’ filly looks the one to be on in the Kensington Palace Stakes.
She’s not quite kicked on as hoped since that second of her back-to-back wins last summer but she ran very well when third to the subsequent Listed-placed Crystal Caprice over this course and distance in September, and that was her second visit to Ascot having won here on quicker ground in July.
Her final run of 2022 and first of the current campaign have both been over seven furlongs and I don’t think the four-runner Chelmsford race was to her benefit at all on the seasonal comeback, when too keen and getting picked off late on by Riot who had settled much better at the back of the field.
Getting back up to a mile and having plenty of pace to chase in a big field should help Tarrabb quite considerably and she’s definitely worth another chance off her current mark of 91, especially with Burrows fitting a first-time tongue-tie which could help eke out that bit more improvement.
Burrows has some previous with adding tongue-ties (2/10), Hukum winning at York when first fitted with one and Wishaah another for the yard when scoring at Newmarket a couple of years ago.
Look beyond disappointing effort overseas
The principal punting race on day two is the Royal Hunt Cup and while cases for the likes of Perotto, Intellogent and Astro King all but write themselves, there’s only one Hunt Cup in the year so it’s got to be worth looking for something that could win at slightly more rewarding odds.
Antepost fancy Blue For You is seemingly well drawn in 26 following an eyecatching fifth in the Sky Bet Hambleton Stakes at York’s Dante Festival, but he’s almost halved in price since first looking at the race a few weeks back so I’ll take a fresh approach and back AWAAL for Simon and Ed Crisford, who won the Hambleton with Croupier so clearly have a decent line into the mile handicap division.
Awaal is a double-figure price based purely on his last run out in France, which clearly didn’t go to plan as he finished last of the nine runners in a Longchamp Listed race, as if he was coming here fresh from his brilliant Lincoln effort he’d surely be among the favourites.
I can excuse any good horse one bad run and there’s no denying this is a quality animal on his day, arguably looking a shade unlucky to get picked off late on at Doncaster having been on the sharp end throughout.
He’s only 3lb higher here and while defying triple-figure marks in Royal Ascot handicaps is far from straightforward, the Crisfords will be disappointed if Awaal isn’t plying his trade at Group level come the end of the season.
Tuesday morning’s slight easing of the ground will play to his strengths and William Buick (also rides Tarrabb) is in for the ride for the first time which looks a bit of a statement of intent. He should be able to secure a prominent pitch close to the stands’ side from stall 29 and this horse can at least reward each-way support.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1500 BST on 20/06/23
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