2000 Guineas preview: Pedigree pointers ahead of first Classic at Newmarket

The last race for two year olds, they must stay beyond a mile. Big-field experience required, they must have run on turf. And what of those with no stakes-race experience? How will they cope with the occasion?

We all have our criteria regarding the perfect Guineas candidate and to explore each of these 11 runners' credentials would take more time to write than I possess and likely more attention span than most readers care to give.

With that in mind, it won't surprise regular readers to learn that the focus of attention will be solely on pedigree in an attempt to decipher who poses the biggest threat to the seemingly unassailable ante post favourite City Of Troy.

1. ALYANAABI (Too Darn Hot x Alyamaama by Kitten’s Joy)

A setback interrupted this colt’s champion two year old sire lining up in the 2000 Guineas but he showed the track was not an issue with a facile Dewhurst success to conclude his unbeaten juvenile campaign. Effective from 7f to 1m2f, his progeny should have no problem over the Guineas trip. Alyanaabi is the second foal out of his unraced dam by Kitten's Joy. She is the last foal out of Shadwell's treasured broodmare Sarayir and there is a lot to like on his page. Alyamaama is a half-sister to 1000 Guineas victor Ghanaati (Giant’s Causeway) and the dam of 1000 Guineas third Maqaasid (Green Desert). The Guineas are exactly what Shadwell had in mind when planning this mating.

2. CITY OF TROY (Justify x Together Forever by Galileo)

By a stallion who never ran as a juvenile and out of a mare who achieved her best as a juvenile, City Of Troy possess a unique pedigree. Add to that the blend of dirt and turf influence, there is truly a vast array of track and trip that City Of Troy could excel over, and nobody could raise an eyebrow. He is entitled to see out the mile well and has shown the Rowley Mile’s dip is no problem. On pedigree, a mile at this age is probably his minimum. His dam by Galileo was narrowly beaten in the Musidora before contesting the Oaks, and his Triple Crown winning sire stepped up in trip each time he ran beginning his career over 7f in February at three and ending it four months later over a mile and a half in the Belmont Stakes. Trip might be a concern had we not already witnessed his high cruising speed in each of his three starts to date. The preference for a strong pace might be a concern were he not accustomed to making his own running. Certainly, on pedigree, there is very little reason to doubt him bar a lack of pace and a dash to the line where he could be vulnerable to something with a turn of foot.

3. GHOSTWRITER (Invincible Spirit x Moorside by Champs Elysees)

Invincible Spirit is very much in the twilight stages of his career but has shown he is not finished yet when this colt won the Royal Lodge last September over the Guineas track and trip. Already the sire of 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia as well as runners-up Territories and Kingman, he will not be culpable should Ghostwriter come up short. His dam was moved on by Juddmonte when she finished racing. She won a maiden over a mile and a half and finished second in the Listed Cheshire Oaks. This is the Juddmonte family of 2000 Guineas winner Zafonic, so class is not in short supply.

4. HAATEM (Phoenix Of Spain x Hard Walnut by Cape Cross)

It is too soon to properly judge Phoenix Of Spain as a sire, but though stakes winners are a little bit hard to come by, this colt's ability was in plain sight when he dominated in the Craven Stakes. So much so, I was compelled to do a deep dive into his pedigree. To summarise, it is not unjust to suggest he would be a surprise winner on pedigree when compared to some of his rivals, but as mentioned previously, his sire at present is an unknown quantity who cannot be ruled out.

5. IBERIAN (Lope de Vega x Bella Estrella by High Chaparral)

Lope de Vega is no stranger to Classic success, his grandson Haatem won the Craven in decisive fashion and went one place better than Iberian when the pair clashed in the Vintage Stakes. This colt is out of a Listed winner over a mile who is in turn out of dual Grade 2 winner Unchartered Heaven. Bella Estrella is half-sister to the dam of Irish 1000 Guineas winner Just The Judge (Lawman). There is speed and there is class on this page, and Iberian is bred to progress from two to three. Something he must do if he’s going to reverse the form with City Of Troy.

6. INISHERIN (Shamardal x Ajman Princess by Teofilo)

Just like Kentucky Derby rivals Sierra Leone and Forever Young (read here*insert link to KY piece), this colt’s dam is a three parts sister to the dam of his fancied rival Rosallion. Though on form he is the outsider of the pair, his pedigree suggests otherwise – partially due to the unknown quantity that is Blue Point. Shamardal was a proven source of quality before his premature passing and his progeny excel from 6f-10f though he has had top middle-distance horses too. His dam Ajman Princess was a smart middle-distance filly and not short of pace as she showed in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet over 10f. Lack of experience is likely to catch this colt out but he is worth observing as a potentially smart prospect for the future.

7. NIGHT RAIDER (Dark Angel x Dorraar by Shamardal)

Dark Angel is not a sire we typically associate with the Classics, but he is capable of getting top class horses over a mile. It is fair to say the majority of his best are sprinters though, and this colt is a half-brother to Far Above (Farhh) who was at his very best when he dropped back to the minimum trip. His dam was effective over 7f and is by Shamardal who will need to have a say if this colt is going to excel over a mile.

8. NOTABLE SPEECH (Dubawi x Swift Rose by Invincible Spirit)

Dubawi is all too familiar with the 2000 Guineas and made that very clear when siring a winner of the race in his very first crop courtesy of Makfi. Yet to race on turf in three starts, it is interesting if not trivial that Notable Speech’s dam earned her black type on dirt at Meydan and her only win on AW at Wolverhampton. Most likely due to her connections rather than by design, it is more of a concern regarding experience as opposed to a worry he won’t handle turf. There is a lot of speed in his pedigree, his dam earned her black type over sprinting trips and her best progeny to date were sprinter/milers. A mile is likely to be his optimum and in time he may be worth trying over shorter distances. For now, though he lacks experience he is bred to be here.

9. ROSALLION (Blue Point x Rosaline by New Approach)

As mentioned, Rosallion’s unraced dam Rosaline is a three parts sister to the G1 winning dam of rival Inisherin. The pair of rivals are grandsons of a mare who has established herself as a young Blue Hen and her daughters are showing signs they might carry on her legacy with two Guineas contenders lining. Reem Three (Mark Of Esteem) can boast six stakes winners to her credit, two of those at Group 1 level including Darley’s new stallion Triple Time (Frankel) who was victorious in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Though Rosaline never ran, she is a daughter of promising broodmare sire New Approach. Blue Point may have run away with the champion first-season sire title, but his prowess with the Classic generation is still an unknown. He was an out and out sprinter himself, so whether this colt sees out the mile strongly remains to be seen. It is an intriguing and crucial question that we don’t have to wait too long to answer.

10. TASK FORCE (Frankel x Special Duty by Hennessy)

This colt is bred to be a champion and on pedigree is unquestionably the each way play. Born a decade after his remarkable sire Frankel bossed this very Classic on his way to immortality, Task Force is out of the dual Guineas winning champion two year old Special Duty. She is a half-sister to the dam of Expert Eye and third dam Viviana is responsible for the pair of multiple Grade 1 winners Sightseek and Tates Creek. He will fulfil the age old mantra of breeding the best to the best to get the best should he conquer this field.

11. TEN BOB TONY (Night Of Thunder x Hug by Dark Angel)

It doesn’t seem that long ago since Night Of Thunder foiled regally bred and fancied Kingman’s bid for Classic glory on this day ten years ago. A quality stallion in his own right, Night Of Thunder is yet to sire a Classic winner though he came agonisingly close with Isaac Shelby in the French equivalent last season. It is likely only a matter of time with his first expensively bred juveniles hitting the track this year (€75,000 stud fee), though on what we know so far it would surprise if this colt were the one to do it. Dark Angel is yet to get rolling as a damsire, and this colt’s dam was not typical of him at all winning over a mile and a half. She is half-sister to Tie Black who won the French 2000 Guineas, but despite that remains a watching prospect here.

Conclusion

City Of Troy is a worthy favourite, Haatem is the each-way value with Task Force and Ghostwriter the next best.

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