Boxing betting tips: Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia live on DAZN
Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez defends his undisputed super-middleweight title against unbeaten Jaime Munguia in Las Vegas so check out Chris Oliver's big-fight preview.
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1pt Canelo to win rounds 7-12 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez faces a fellow Mexican for the first time in seven years when he takes on Jaime Munguia in Las Vegas this weekend.
That fact is of particular significance because it wasn’t that long ago that he stated he wouldn't fight one of his countrymen when the pressure was on to fight Davd Benavidez, an unbeaten Mexican who is clearly the biggest challenger to Canelo's super middleweight throne.
To seemingly avoid Benavidez and go back on his word by choosing a lower-ranked rival from his own country perhaps highlights a change in attitude from Canelo, whose previous willingness to face the biggest test out there is what made him the biggest name in the sport.
That desire to fight the best was typified by a stunning run in this 168lb division when he unified all four belts by beating three undefeated champions in a prolific 11-month period, with a quick mandatory defence thrown in there for good measure. After the latest of those super middleweight title wins over Caleb Plant in November 2021, Canelo bit off more than he could chew when stepping up to light heavyweight to challenge Dmitry Bivol and was comfortably outpointed,
That may be where his attitude changed a little, as his three subsequent fights back down at 168lb have all been straightforward points wins against hand-picked opponents. Gennadiy Golovkin was way past his best when the then 40-year-old was granted a trilogy fight with Canelo and the latter made Jermell Charlo step up two weight divisions for his opportunity last September, while Britain's John Ryder was a huge underdog when getting the nod for Canelo's homecoming a year ago.
Start time and TV coverage details
- Date & Time: Saturday May 4 (main event approx 0500 Sunday UK time)
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
- Belts: IBF, WBA, WBC and WBO Super Middleweight
- TV channel: DAZN PPV
It is Munguia's performance against Ryder in January this year that earned him this money-spinning contest, as he did a better job than Canelo by stopping the Islington man in nine rounds. Ryder may well have been feeling the effects of his beating at the hands of Canelo, but it was still a career-best performance from Munguia and creates an interesting narrative for this bout.
A former light middleweight champion, Munguia’s perfect 43-fight record with 34 stoppages catches the eye at first glance and he looked a more mature fighter in his victory over Ryder. That was also his first fight under the guidance of legendary trainer Freddie Roach and the 27-year-old could be peaking at just the right time.
However, the Tijuana native’s CV is extremely padded, and he has faced very few world-class operators, so this represents a huge step up in class and the pressure of a Canelo fight week is also something new for him to deal with.
CLICK HERE to bet on Canelo v Munguia with Sky Bet
Despite being a professional for 18 years and taking part in his 65th contest on Saturday, Canelo (60-2-2) remains one of the best fighters in the sport and a formidable operator at super middleweight. He’s the biggest name in the game and while we may be in the final chapter of his brilliant story, he is still very capable of writing a spectacular ending to a hall-of-fame career. For all his ambition may have cooled a little, there was never any doubt about the result of his last three contests back at this weight and Munguia will need to raise his game again if he’s to win this civil war with Canelo, who is a best price of 2/9.
A 9/2 chance here, Munguia is busy, possesses a good jab and carries plenty of power. The latter attribute may be negated by Canelo’s granite chin but throwing plenty of leather can bring him success against a man whose engine seems to be slowing down a little in recent outings. However, Canelo’s kryptonite so far has been slick boxers with great movement, as evidence by his sole two defeats to Floyd Mayweather and Bivol, and Munguia doesn’t have that style.
Traditionally, Canelo has thrived when opponents want to stand and trade with him and this could be the downfall of Munguia, whose leaky defence has always been an issue and he is certainly not hard to find. Whereas Charlo became very passive once he felt the power of Canelo, Munguia only knows one way to fight and that is to go forward.
It’s not hard to envisage Munguia’s activity and aggression giving him success early doors, especially as Canelo can be a bit of a slow starter, but that could only serve to spark the favourite into life and then things could really catch fire. A tear-up in the middle of the ring may be what Munguia wants, but it could be a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’ as Canelo is sure to come back firing and reply in kind.
Canelo is the better all-round boxer, and it is two and a half years since his last stoppage win over Plant (TKO 11), so another points victory for him is rightly the shortest-priced method of victory at 10/11. After all, Munguia has always taken a shot very well up to this point, but there are still enough questions marks over the challenger to suggest there may be some value in a Canelo stoppage (2/1).
Aside from how easy Munguia has always been to hit, his lack of quality opposition since capturing the world light middleweight title six years ago is extremely concerning and this leap up in class could be too big. Admittedly, he did a number on Ryder earlier in the year, but it did look as though his brutal defeat to Canelo eight months earlier had taken an awful lot out of the Englishman. Prior to that performance, Munguia would have been an even bigger underdog in this fight and people may have read a little too much into that piece of collateral form.
Plenty have shown too much respect to Canelo in the past, but Munguia is very unlikely to do so, and I believe his all-out aggression could really bring out the ‘dog’ in Canelo, with Mexican pride very much on the line. If that is the case, I think the favourite could force a stoppage, most likely in the second half of the fight and that outcome is a tasty 7/2 with Sky Bet.
We look set for a thrilling all-Mexican war on Cinco de Mayo weekend and one that ends with a very familiar winner.
CLICK HERE to back Canelo in rounds 7-12 with Sky Bet
Canelo v Munguia: Fight card, running order, and TV details
- MAIN EVENT: Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia
IBF, WBA, WBC and WBO world super middleweight titles - Brandon Figueroa vs. Jessie Magdaleno
WBC interim featherweight title - Mario Barrios vs. Fabian Andres Maidana
WBC interim welterweight title - Eimantas Stanionis vs. Gabriel Maestre
WBA welterweight title - Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr vs Johan Gonzalez
- Vito Mielnicki Jr vs Ronald Cruz
- Damien Vazquez vs Alan Picasso Romero
- Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela vs Jose Angulo
- William Scull vs Sean Hemphill
- Jabin Chollet vs Julian Bridges
- Adrian Torres vs Arsen Poghosyan
Posted at 1200 BST on 03/05/24
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