Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets for the Mutua Madrid Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Hubert Hurkacz at 33/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Grigor Dimitrov at 50/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Ugo Humbert at 125/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Mutua Madrid Open

• Madrid, Spain (outdoor clay)

The mish-mash nature of the ATP Tour calendar has seemingly forever been an issue for both players and fans.

As discussions continue in the corridors of power – and, of course, Saudi Arabia – about the future of the tour, we may soon get the first significant calendar shake-up for many years.

However, in the here and now, the world’s best players will gather in Madrid this week.

While a commercially successful event, it’s never sat well with me that the tour heads to Madrid as part of its key run-in to the French Open, which begins in a month’s time.

Having already played in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, the elite will soon be playing close to sea level again in Rome.

Yet sandwiched between those events is the trip to the Spanish capital which sits around 700m up.

The significant altitude creates very different conditions to those found at the aforementioned claycourt tournaments and can hardly be the ideal way to prepare for the second Grand Slam event of the season which is now coming into view on the horizon.

Essentially, it plays much faster here and gives the power players a greater chance. A big serve, so often nullified by the clay, can be a big weapon here and that’s been borne out down the years.

Roger Federer never won in Monte Carlo or Rome but did, twice, on the clay of Madrid.

Alex Zverev is a two-time champion, while the likes of John Isner and Kevin Anderson have enjoyed deep runs here in the past.

But perhaps the most telling statistic about the court speed is Rafael Nadal’s record at the Caja Magica (remember Madrid was an indoor hardcourt event prior to the tournament moving to its current venue in 2009).

Yes, he’s won four times – a fine record for a mere mortal – but when compared to his 11 titles in Monte Carlo, 12 in Barcelona and 10 in Rome, it’s poor, even taking into account that 2009 date (Nadal first won in Monte Carlo in 2005). Notably, his strike-rate (4 titles in 13 visits) is worse than that of Novak Djokovic (3 in 9).

Djokovic isn’t here this year. Nadal is but, as expected, he was well below his best in Barcelona where he lost to Alex de Minaur in the second round.

The greatest claycourter of all time is a more realistic price this week – 20/1 – but he’s still easily ignored given that he’s barely played in 18 months.

The bookies find it hard to split the top two seeds, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Both are offered at 5/2.

Of course, it’s easy to make a case for both men but I’m not interested in backing either.

Let’s start with Sinner, who heads up the draw.

In my eyes, he’s been the world’s best for about nine months now and the rankings will surely soon reflect that.

However, the Italian openly admits clay isn’t his favourite surface and it wasn’t a great surprise that he lost to eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Monte Carlo semi-finals. The pair could meet at that stage again this week.

Before that, however, Sinner may have to face another in-form clay star in Casper Ruud.

Like Tsitsipas, a return to the red dirt has helped turn Ruud’s season around. After losing to Tsitsipas in the Monte Carlo final, he took his revenge on Sunday, beating the Greek to lift the trophy in Barcelona.

Conditions probably don’t suit Ruud as much here and, of the two, preference would be to back Tsitsipas at 12/1 – he’s a former finalist, although he too has a stronger record down at the sea-level events.

Perhaps Daniil Medvedev can take advantage of the quicker conditions. He always wants a bit of pace and he’s shown in the past that if he can get his mental attitude right when playing on clay, he’s capable of gaining good results.

That said, I’d want more than 18/1 about the third seed.

Yes, the likelihood is one of the big guns comes through the top half but it’s more open to question than it would be elsewhere and, with that in mind, I’m prepared to take a small punt on GRIGOR DIMITROV.

The Bulgarian is enjoying a renaissance in his career and now finds himself back in the world’s top 10.

He made the most of some pacy conditions in Shanghai last autumn, reaching the semi-finals, and has been a consistent threat ever since.

Dimitrov finished 2023 with a run to the final of the Paris Masters and he picked up where he left off, winning the title in Brisbane in the opening week of this season.

Another Masters final appearance came in Miami where Hubert Hurkacz, Alcaraz and Zverev were all beaten and while he was edged out in a final-set tie-break by Holger Rune in Monte Carlo recently, Dimitrov is now an impressive 22-6 for the season.

He’ll enjoy the slicker conditions of Madrid, where he’s beaten Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka in their prime, especially if his serve continues to shine.

Dimitrov leads the tour for first-serve points won and only Sinner has won a higher percentage of service games. In short, he could well be tough to break this week.

Dimitrov is in Ruud’s quarter and notably has won their only previous clash on clay, in Monte Carlo in 2022.

At 50/1, he’s worth a small punt.

Turning to the bottom half, we find Alcaraz, who will be seeking to complete a hat-trick of titles in Madrid this year.

However, anyone backing him to do so is punching in the dark to some extent.

Alcaraz missed Monte Carlo and Barcelona due to a forearm injury so he’s yet to play on the European clay this season and while this is his natural surface, expecting him to click straight into gear – especially at 5/2 – may be too much.

It’s worth saying at this point that each of his two titles here has been preceded by success in Barcelona so coming in cold will be a new experience.

I’m happy to swerve the Spaniard and instead take a risk on two more players who could make good use of the opportunity different conditions present.

I can pretty much say now that I won’t be putting up HUBERT HURKACZ or UGO HUMBERT in Rome in a couple of weeks’ time but both could make waves at higher altitude given their serving ability.

Going back to those serving stats, Hurkacz looks well on the way to landing our season bet for most aces – he’s already more than 100 clear of his closest rival – while the Pole sits third for first-serve points won and fourth for service games won.

As for Humbert, he’s 11th in the latter category with his notable stat being third for second-serve points won.

It’s not all about the serve though with both men enjoying good form so far in 2024.

Hurkacz, a quarter-finalist here two years ago, recently won his first clayourt title in Estoril and should arrive with confidence up.

Opposition will be tougher here, of course – Jack Draper is a potential opening foe, although Hurkacz did beat him in Monte Carlo earlier this month.

It’s undoubtedly a bit of a long shot but I can certainly see Hurkacz going deep if he keeps serving well and he’s worth a go at 33/1.

As for Humbert, I’m not sure he’s been given enough credit for his climb back up the rankings.

Having cracked the top 30 in 2020, he dropped away and alarmingly fell outside the top 150 in the summer of 2022.

However, after a fine 2023 and an impressive start to the current campaign, which has included titles in Marseille and Dubai, he’s now sitting at a career-high of 13 in the rankings.

The Frenchman’s attacking game isn’t one you’d naturally associate with claycourt success but the move onto the Terre Battue went well in Monte Carlo where he made the last eight, beating Federico Coria, Zhizhen Zhang and Lorenzo Sonego before losing, in three sets, to Ruud.

Up at this altitude, his serve is getting that extra bite and the left-hander could cause a problem for Alcaraz should they face off in the last 16. It would be their first career meeting.

A price of 125/1 looks a little disrespectful to Humbert and, again, I’m happy to take a shot.

Posted at 1340 BST on 23/04/24

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