Kentucky Derby 2024 preview and tips for Churchill Downs
Jake Price provides an in-depth preview of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday night.
Kentucky Derby tips: Saturday, May 4
2pts win Fierceness in 23.57 Churchill Downs at 3/1 (General)
1pt e.w Honor Marie in 23.57 Churchill Downs at 18/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
The 2024 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs will be the 150th running of the “Run for the Roses”. Twenty runners and the one-and-a-quarter mile distance make the first Triple Crown race a unique test in the US. There’s a chance of thunderstorms across Friday and Saturday, but looking at the forecast, that threat doesn’t look as strong on ‘Derby Day. Time will tell on that score…
As far as the contenders are concerned, the obvious starting place is with Fierceness who’s 5 Ibs clear of the pack on Timeform ratings. He took Champion Juvenile honours last year, thanks to winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita by 6¼ lengths from Muth. A rather flat return in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream was soon forgotten about when he won the Grade 1 Florida Derby there by a scintillating 13½ lengths from Catalytic. He didn’t mess about from the gate that day, dictating the pace and storming clear in a good time.
For all his obvious talent has yet to go back-to-back, but what’s not in doubt is his wicked turn of foot that saw him capture those successes. His trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole were forced to scratch last year’s long-term chalk Forte at the eleventh hour. They’ll be hoping Fierceness can make amends despite having to overcome a wide draw.
Also at the head of the betting is Sierra Leone who cost Coolmore and partners $2.3 million at the sales as a yearling. A closer who’s progressed markedly with each start, he’s unlucky not to come into this unbeaten.
Some inexperience saw him narrowly defeated by Dornoch on his second start in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct. He was then fitted with blinkers and won his next two, taking the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland last time despite some difficulty loading at the start. Gate two may not be great from a traffic perspective given his way of racing but he’d be an obvious choice to benefit should Fierceness fail to fire. He’s also proven in the slop and his form stacks up.
Brad Cox’s Just A Touch was second to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass but that was an effort than can be marked up. Handily placed in a strongly-run race, he stuck to his task when the other prominent racers all dropped away.
That was his first run on a dry track, he’d already shown plenty in the slop on both previous outings. Providing inexperience doesn’t get the better of him on the day, it would be no surprise to see him hitting the board at least.
Cox also has Catching Freedom who was third to Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds before winning the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at the same track. He was impressive there as he came from last and took a very wide path into the stretch. He’ll appreciate them going out hard in front.
Japan provides the only unbeaten runners in this year’s race with both Forever Young and T O Password.
Forever Young has a perfect record from five, his first three successes all back in his home country as a juvenile. Sent on his travels this year, he showed plenty of determination to prevail in both the Saudi Derby & UAE Derby. He may not be the flashiest but he certainly knows how to win. This will be by far his sternest test and there may yet be more to come from him.
The least exposed runner this year is T O Password who’s won both his starts. His second success earned his spot here thanks to Japan’s ‘Road to the Derby’ berth. It’s hard to judge exactly what he’s achieved, though this will be a completely different test to anything he’s encountered before.
A familiar face to British racing fans is Ben Curtis who takes the reins on Honor Marie. Curtis has recently made the switch to the US permanent and has impressed to the point of already getting a ride in this Triple Crown contest.
Honor Marie took a step forward on each of his three starts as a juvenile, all at this venue, culminating with a success in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. He’s been brought along steadily this season and chased home Catching Freedom in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds last out. His work has gradually cranked up and he isn’t one to underestimate. The big field and potential pace scenario should see him to best effect and I anticipate him picking his way through the pack late on.
As far as the pace is concerned, Dornoch and Track Phantom are two others who may join Just A Touch out in front.
Dornoch, a full-brother to last year’s Derby hero Mage, made a very bright start to his career. He showed plenty of heart to get back up to nail Sierra Leone in the Remsen at Aqueduct and repeated in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. He didn’t fully fire in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland last month, possibly as he never hit the front. Gate one looks ideal for his tactics.
In gate twelve goes Track Phantom, who won the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds in January before narrowly going down to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star there next out. He’s disappointed in the Louisiana Derby since and would look to have a bit to prove now.
In conclusion, if FIERCENESS handles the prelims and puts in his best work, he’s the one to beat. He stands head and shoulders above the rest on Timeform ratings thanks to his Florida Derby rout and at the prices has to be worth a bet. Of the rest, I like the profile of HONOR MARIE who, granted a clean trip, will surely be doing his best work at the finish for former British-based jockey Ben Curtis. He looks worth an each-way play.
Preview posted at 1710 BST on 03/05/24
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